Long term bets
In the fall of 2007, as a fresh new grad student at the Laboratory for Computational Intelligence at UBC, I saw video of the DARPA Urban Challenge. I had been following the Grand Challenges closely for years -- hell, I helped out with a completely screwball attempt at an entry from UW. The results still blew me away. Multiple competitors, all active at the same time, in an urban environment, with human drivers in the mix, following CA state driving laws. Compared to the first Grand Challenge just a few years before, where only a single vehicle made it out the gate, only to get 7 miles before setting itself on fire, it was astonishing.
Obviously we were on the edge of a significant historical moment. We were facing technological change which would result in a fundamental restructuring of cities. Maybe even a chance to undo some of the damage of the 20th century. Heady stuff.
So I made a bet. Not with anyone in particular, but just with myself. Within 10 years, I was confident, there would be widespread adaption of autonomous vehicles. And here we are in the future... where driverless cars still look like they're about 10 years out.
Let it be known: I was wrong.
Obviously we were on the edge of a significant historical moment. We were facing technological change which would result in a fundamental restructuring of cities. Maybe even a chance to undo some of the damage of the 20th century. Heady stuff.
So I made a bet. Not with anyone in particular, but just with myself. Within 10 years, I was confident, there would be widespread adaption of autonomous vehicles. And here we are in the future... where driverless cars still look like they're about 10 years out.
Let it be known: I was wrong.